Djokovic with slight advantage based on tournament data
After 126 matches featuring 128 players, we are down to one final match, between the two players seeded to be here at this stage – Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, in what is a final most neutrals would have been delighted with in advance of the tournament.
Across their six matches at Wimbledon so far this tournament, it’s Djokovic with the marginal data edge. He’s won slightly more games (66% to 63%) and also possesses a combined hold/break edge in excess of the numbers Federer can boast.
Market lines on Djokovic some slight value
Taking those numbers in isolation, however, isn’t recommended, and it must be assessed in combination with more medium-term grass data as well.
This 24 month data also is in favour of the Serb, whose advantage on return (he’s broken around 10% more than Federer during this time period on grass) is considerably greater than Federer, and leads me to think thatmarket line on the world number one is actually reasonable value.
My model has Djokovic at [1.45] to take this, as he has done in their three previous meetings, although the head to head series is rather ageing these days, with only two meetings taking place since the Australian Open in 2016.
More recent head to head results in Djokovic’s favour
Rather surprisingly, they’ve only met three times on grass, with Djokovic winning the most recent two clashes, but those head to head matches on the surface show similar data for each player – there’s little to be gained by analysing their previous grass meetings, particularly given the last one was in 2015.
However, Djokovic has taken eight of 11 in head to head meetings since the start of 2015 across all surfaces, and the set count in those matches reads 19-11 in favour of the world number one – he’s largely bossed those head to head matches in a more recent time frame.
Given this, and the fact that my model felt that Djokovic was value without taking this more recent head to head advantage into account, I think the [1.57] about him is reasonable value. I don’t think it’s a huge edge, but it’s enough for a recommendation in today’s final.
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