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Labour Leader Betting: Odds shorten on Jeremy Corbyn leaving in 2019

Labour Leader Betting: Odds shorten on Jeremy Corbyn leaving in 2019

Could last night’s Panorama about anti-semitism in Labour spell the beginning of the end for Jeremy Corbyn? Max Liu reports on the latest Labour leader odds.

The odds are shortening on Jeremy Corbyn leaving his post as Labour leader this year following last night’s damaging Panorama documentary about anti-semitism and bullying in the party.

Corbyn is [2.8] – at 36% chance – on the Betfair Exchange to be gone in 2019 as colleagues urge him to take immediate action about accusations of anti-semitism in the party and critics accuse him of allowing prejudice to fester in its ranks.

Panorama featured claims from eight whistleblowers, who used to work for the party, that senior Labour figures interfered in their investigations into it. Labour has rejected the claims and complained to the BBC about the documentary.

Most bettors still think Corbyn will survive the year, with the odds on him leaving in 2020 or beyond at [1.35]. But Panorama has probably damaged the party’s reputation and compounded the sense that there is a problem with anti-semitism in Labour under Corbyn.

Beginning of the end for Corbyn?

A spokesperson for Betfair said: “The BBC Panorama documentary looks like it may well be the beginning of the end for Jeremy Corbyn.

“Since it aired, we’ve been on the receiving end of a huge number of bets on him to step down, with plenty requesting odds for him to be gone as soon as the end of this week.”

On social media, the Labour campaign group Momentum has hit back with supporters accusing the documentary makers of bias under #PanoramaHatchetJob and pointing out that on Monday Channel Four broadcast a chilling Dispatches documentary about Islamophobia in the Conservative Party.

Rebecca Long-Bailey leads contenders to succeed Corbyn

Labour’s general election odds are also drifting – out to [2.86] to win the most seats next time the country goes to the polls.

Could a different leader help improve Labour’s electoral chances?

Rebecca Long-Bailey [7.8] is the current favourite to succeed Corbyn as Labour leader.

As those odds indicate, it’s a field without an obvious front-runner and Long-Bailey probably edges it because she would be Momentum’s preferred candidate ahead of Keir Starmer [8.0] and Emily Thornberry [9.0].

It could be worth considering an outsider, though, such as Clive Lewis [19.5] or Laura Piddock [30.0]. After all, you have to go back to 1994 and the rise of Tony Blair for the last time the early favourite won a Labour leadership contest.

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