We’re finishing the week in Brazil, because Kev thinks he’s found a home side that’s way too short for the win.
Hosts to slip further into trouble
Sunday 14 July, 23:00
This week I’ve felt like Sideshow Bob, constantly walking into brooms that smash me in the face. The latest metaphorical broom was Santos’ 87th-minute winner at Bahiaa goal that ended the hosts’ 100% home record and scuppered our Asian Handicap bet.
We’ll stay in Brazil, because Chapecoense are up against Atletico Mineiro in Serie A.
Chapecoense have had to rebuild after the tragic plane crash that killed most of their squad in 2016. With a squad built of loan players, free transfers and youngsters, Chapecoense finished eighth in 2017, and 14th last year. This season, they are battling against the drop. They have won just one of their five home matches, and they have only won two games overall. They have leaked 14 goals in nine games.
Atletico Mineiro are fifth, and although they have had a wobble of late (one win in the last four league games), it still seems odd that they are [3.6] outsiders here. They have won two of their four away matches in the league, and in terms of overall league goals, only Palmeiras and Flamengo have outscored them. Across the first nine matchdays of the season, they have accrued double the number of points that Chapecoense have claimed.
Chaepcoense have won just one of their last eight league games, and I can see little justification for them being such firm favourites here. I’ll back Draw and Away in themarket at [1.75].
Points Staked: 95
Points Returned: 78.27
P/L: -16.73 points
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